ACUS11 KWNS 081453
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO...CNTRL/NRN IL...FAR SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081452Z - 081645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW DMGG
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION -- PRINCIPALLY EXHIBITING LINEAR MODES --
/1/ FROM SRN WI TO NRN IL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN MCV CROSSING CNTRL
WI...AND /2/ ACROSS NERN MO EVOLVING FROM REMNANT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN PATCHY CLOUD BREAKS AND
THROUGH CLOUD-CANOPY TRANSLUCENCE WILL CONTINUE FACILITATING
CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION OWING TO AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE -- PW
VALUES AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND
70F.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD -- WELL TO
THE E OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...AND SHOULD EXHIBIT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COMMENSURATE
WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING. AREA VWPS IMPLY 20-40 KT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION...OFFERING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR MODEST
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN PRIMARILY QUASI-LINEAR MODES. CONVECTIVE
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY FOSTER A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG
WIND GUSTS IN SMALL LINE-EMBEDDED BOWS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS AT ILX AND DVN ARE QUITE POOR -- WITH
STATICALLY STABLE LAYERS ALOFT GREATLY LIMITING UPWARD
ACCELERATIONS/CONVECTIVE VIGOR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD MITIGATE THE
SVR RISK TO A LARGE EXTENT.
..COHEN/HART.. 09/08/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41288791 40008947 39659106 39899201 40319187 40939035
42568892 42798802 41988766 41288791
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