ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151843Z - 152045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WI INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. A FEW INSTANCES OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WI/FAR NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY /WITHIN 25 MILES/ OF
I-90. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS TIED TO A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO A PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM LATE LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS ADDITIONAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
INDIANA. SIMILAR TO CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED
LINCOLN IL SOUNDING...LATEST SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS YIELDING
UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. AMPLE
CAPE/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE HAIL...A FEW PULSE-TYPE INSTANCES
OF SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR.
..GUYER/WEISS.. 08/15/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 43008959 43038863 41698790 41118692 40358685 40218772
40878907 42408972 43008959
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