AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH NERN IL AND EXTREME SERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012311Z - 020115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM WCNTRL THROUGH
NERN IL AND EXTREME SERN WI INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND POSE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF
A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE MI
SWWD THROUGH SERN WI...NWRN IL INTO NRN MO. CUMULUS HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM NRN IL INTO SERN WI WHERE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
MAY BE PRESENT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS FROM EARLIER TODAY WERE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE AND ALLOWED FOR ONLY PARTIAL RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 6.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT EXISTS IN
WARMS SECTOR...AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED WLY OR SWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE. MOREOVER...WV IMAGERY INDICATES DRYING
ALOFT IS SPREADING SEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL IL. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH
DECREASING INSOLATION LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW MANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN INITIATE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO IL.
EVEN WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER
SPACE APPEARS TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MODEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39379018 39949092 41588962 42928837 42238775 40858795
39878873 39379018
