AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171826Z - 172030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS SRN AND ERN WI
AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. OVERALL SVR THREAT IS LOW BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AND ISOLATED COVERAGE PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN AND ERN WI. 12Z GRB SOUNDING SAMPLED
REASONABLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING VALUES GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM. THESE LAPSE RATES
AMIDST THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
MAX 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES AROUND 20 DEG C AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING INDICATE THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE WET
DOWNBURSTS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM MERGERS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK AND A MULTICELL/PULSE MODE IS FAVORED...LIMITING THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE THREAT. AS SUCH...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42328834 42689083 43379113 44509016 45498912 45598779
45478705 45048705 44208732 42628754 42328834
