AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171645Z - 171815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT LIKELY ATTM.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 1630Z SHOWS A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING N-NEWD ACROSS NERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND ABOVE A
CLOUDY/STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS. THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 C/KM IS AIDING IN A NWD EXPANSION OF
MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS
RESULTING IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
FAVOR ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN MO AND CNTRL IL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG/SVR...AND POSE A RISK
FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/17/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39548772 38808822 38528913 38549024 38939214 39859247
40899079 41008938 40558843 39548772
