THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID 1/30/2012 TO 4/29/2012
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DUNNS BRIDGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
10 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 9.3 FT.
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 8.1 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.4
KOUTS 11.0 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.6
SHELBY 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.5 12.6 13.5
MOMENCE 5.0 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.8 6.4
WILMINGTON 6.5 3.6 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.9
SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 12.8 15.8 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.0 21.3
IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 9.3 10.1 10.5 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.2 13.1 13.6
FORESMAN 18.0 13.6 14.8 15.7 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.1
IROQUOIS 18.0 14.2 16.3 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.2 21.0 21.6 22.2
CHEBANSE 16.0 9.4 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.0 17.1
DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.4
GURNEE 7.0 4.1 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.7 6.9 7.5 8.8
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.2 4.9 6.3
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.7
RIVERSIDE 7.0 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.6 8.4
FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.6 10.4 11.2 12.1
MONTGOMERY 13.0 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1
DAYTON 12.0 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.7 12.2 12.7 14.5
EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 17.8 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.6
DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.5
MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 5.2 5.7 6.2 7.0 7.7 8.8 9.7 10.0 10.7
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 6.1 6.6 7.6 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.7 12.5 14.3
LEONORE 16.0 9.9 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.6 16.6 18.1 19.8
THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 5.5 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.4 9.2 10.1
HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.4 7.1
LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 9.5 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.0
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 10.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.1
ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 9.2 10.8 12.4 13.3 14.4 15.3 16.8 17.7 19.9
OTTAWA 463.0
LA SALLE 20.0 16.7 18.8 20.2 22.0 22.9 23.4 24.4 25.4 28.3
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 4.3 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.7 8.9 9.2
PERRYVILLE 12.0 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.0
SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 4.8 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.3 8.3 9.1
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 5.6 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.2 10.1 12.2
LATHAM PARK 10.0 5.9 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 11.6
ROCKFORD 9.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 5.4
BYRON 13.0 8.3 9.2 9.5 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.7 13.4
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 8.2 8.5 9.4 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 13.6
...PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING...AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE...
VALID 1/30/2012 TO 4/29/2012
-----------FLOOD STAGE----------- DEPARTURE
LOCATION MINOR MODERATE MAJOR FROM NORMAL
STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND IL 12.0 27% 15.0 --- 17.0 --- 14% LESS
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON IL 10.0 19% 11.0 14% 14.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
LATHAM PARK IL 10.0 16% 11.0 11% 14.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE IL 9.0 14% 11.0 3% 12.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
S BR KISHWAUKEE
DEKALB IL 10.0 1% 11.0 1% 12.5 --- NEAR NORMAL
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE IL 12.0 42% 18.0 --- 22.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ROCK RIVER
BYRON IL 13.0 14% 16.0 1% 18.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
DIXON IL 16.0 6% 18.0 1% 20.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE IN 10.0 31% 12.0 4% 13.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
KOUTS IN 11.0 32% 13.0 4% 14.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
SHELBY IN 9.0 93% 11.0 42% 12.5 19% 13% GREATER
MOMENCE IL 5.0 31% 6.5 6% 9.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
WILMINGTON IL 6.5 13% 8.0 3% 10.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER IN 12.0 39% 14.0 3% 15.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
FORESMAN IN 18.0 24% 22.0 --- 24.0 --- 9% GREATER
IROQUOIS IL 18.0 62% 24.0 1% 25.0 1% 8% GREATER
CHEBANSE IL 16.0 13% 18.0 6% 20.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD IL 18.0 45% 22.0 6% 26.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL IL 7.0 62% 9.0 4% 10.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
GURNEE IL 7.0 24% 9.0 6% 11.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
LINCOLNSHIRE IL 11.0 18% 14.0 3% 15.5 1% 1% GREATER
DES PLAINES IL 5.0 18% 8.0 1% 9.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
RIVERSIDE IL 7.0 34% 8.0 11% 9.0 4% NEAR NORMAL
E BR DUPAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK IL 19.5 39% 21.0 3% 23.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD IL 6.5 8% 8.0 1% 10.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY IL 12.0 4% 14.0 --- 17.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN FOOTBR 9.5 44% 10.5 26% 12.0 11% NEAR NORMAL
MONTGOMERY IL 13.0 54% 14.0 11% 15.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
DAYTON IL 12.0 32% 14.0 11% 24.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC IL 14.0 9% 15.0 6% 18.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
LEONORE IL 16.0 36% 21.0 4% 26.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
THORN CREEK
THORNTON IL 10.0 9% 15.0 --- 16.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
LITTLE CALUMET R
MUNSTER IN 12.0 23% 14.0 4% 17.0 4% NEAR NORMAL
SOUTH HOLLAND IL 16.5 --- 18.0 --- 20.0 --- NA
HART DITCH
DYER IN 12.0 1% 13.0 1% 14.0 1% NA
ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS IL 16.0 36% 18.0 16% 22.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
OTTAWA IL 463.0 26% 466.0 9% 469.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
LA SALLE IL 20.0 72% 27.0 9% 31.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
