350 PM CDT
SAME STORY...DIFFERENT DAY. HIGH PRESSURE...DRY...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. LARGE RIDGE IS STILL OVERHEAD...AND A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT AND THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO
BE ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON WEDNESDAY. INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT NOT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION OVER THE LAKE INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
OVER WISCONSIN COULD EASILY DRIFT OVER THE LAKE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND
TOMORROW. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 80S...BUT KEPT AREAS NEAR THE
LAKE IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL TURN EAST OFF OF THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A REFRESHING BREEZE FOR LINGERING SPECTATORS AND
RUNNERS DOWNTOWN. TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
310 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-39...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TO THE EAST. WITH MIXING
TODAY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S TOMORROW AND
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE....RH VALUES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EASTERLY LATE TOMORROW. NEXT CHANCE OF A
WETTING RAIN APPEARS TO BE MID WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MINOR CONCERNS WITH DETAILS OF WIND DIRECTION THROUGH PERIOD.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS TERMINALS ARE
SHOWING TYPICAL SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH DECOUPLING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECREASE OF WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING. THESE
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO START THE DAY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXPANDS SLIGHTLY WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
SET UP A WEAK EAST-SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE FOR ORD/MDW TERMINALS...
WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT LIKELY DEVELOPING AT GYY. SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS HOWEVER WITH WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA BRIEF MVFR...
OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...SLGT CHC SHRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
213 PM CDT
A PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW
PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WILL PROVIDE MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND
EAST...OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TODAY THE LONG SOUTH TO NORTH FETCH OVER
THE LAKE HAS MAINTAINED WAVES IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE SOUTH END IS
KEEPING WAVES VERY LOW IN THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE...AND ONLY 1 TO 2
FT AT THE SOUTH BUOY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES MIGHT BE HIGHER EXCEPT
FOR THE STABLE LAYER UNDER THE WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE
COOLING LAKE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALSO LOSE
THE LONG FETCH...SO WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING FROM CURRENT LEVELS
AND SHOULD REMAIN MUCH SMALLER THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN WINDS WEST AND THEN
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT ALSO
APPEARS TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...POSSIBLY BRINGING NORTHWEST
GALES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
