259 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PULLS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH 140+ KNOT UPPER JET
CORE WHICH WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP
ASCENT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN TO
7.0-7.5 DEG/KM THIS EVENING...WHICH COINCIDENT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY EVEN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ALTHOUGH
ACTUAL ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MINIMAL PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO MAINLY THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
BE ENDING IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT WAVE...AND THE ENTIRE LARGER SCALE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. RELATIVELY STRONG
HEIGHT RISES OF 80-100 METERS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
FAIRLY QUICK EROSION OF ANY LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SUNSHINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY SHOULD
SUPPLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE CWA TO BEGIN THE WEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTS IN
RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY DURING
THE NIGHT...HELPING TO INDUCE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA TO JUST NORTH OF THE IL/WI BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT
FOCUSING FROM MN INTO WI BY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT ALLOWING SATURATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS HIGHEST POPS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF IL/WI BORDER
AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL.
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET RUNS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PASSING NORTH INTO WI LATE TUESDAY...WHILE 12Z
WRF AND GFS INDICATE A WEAKER SOLUTION THAT COMES ACROSS THE CWA.
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT TOO GREAT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD
APPEAR TO PROVIDE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH MOST OF CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A NARROW RIBBON OF 50 DEGREE SFC
DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG/KM SUPPORT AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER DESPITE LITTLE INDICATED SFC
BASED CAPE. WARM SECTOR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MAXES WILL BE CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP TREND DEPENDENT.
ALTHOUGH A FORECAST MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM/UK SOLUTIONS IS
INITIALLY PREFERRED...THE TREND TOWARD THE MORE SUPPRESSED/SOUTH
SOLUTION NOTED IN THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE COMPLICATES THE PICTURE
PARTICULARLY POST-FROPA IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME RANGE AS
THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS SLOWED AND PRECIP
CHANCES WOULD LINGER. GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS DEPICT ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL...MAKING IT TOUGH TO ELIMINATE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS COMING THROUGH AS
WELL. IN EITHER CASE...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -1 C BY
00Z THURSDAY...SUGGESTING TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS COLD ADVECTION OFFSETS DIURNAL HEATING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO THE UPPER 50S...SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LARGE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEFORE AN ELONGATED AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS IN A COLD AIR MASS. RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY HOWEVER AS PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ALOFT.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH SPREAD INCREASES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH
OCCURS AND DEGREE OF ANY PRECIP THREAT. GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TROUGH
MOVING OFF SATURDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING OFF SUNDAY AND A
RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HERALDING A MODERATION IN
TEMPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED BY DAYS 6-7 WITH MAXES
AROUND 50 RISING TO NEAR 60 BY SUNDAY...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 21Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING...THEN BACK SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MN...IA AND MO WITH A STRONG VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL MN. BY 06Z
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...EASTERN U.P. OF MI...FAR SE WI AND BACK TO W CENTRAL
IL...WITH THE VORT MAX TRACKING E ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS N OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS MORE WISE-SPREAD
RAIN AND SHOWERS EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BACK FROM WNW TO WSW THIS LEVEL TO MOISTEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIFLUENCE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG 130KT JET MAX DROPPING OVER
EASTERN ND SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 00Z-06Z EXPECT SOME
HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S DEW POINTS ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OFF TO THE E OF THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ALONG WITH STRONG LOW AND
MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADING NE-SE ACROSS THE AREA.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 21Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING SHOWER POTENTIAL...LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION AND WIND
SHIFTS. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR
TUESDAY...STRONG SSW WINDS WITH SCT TSRA IN EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF -SHRA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
245 AM CDT
WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RELATIVELY WARM
AIR RUNNING INTO THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER SHOULD PREVENT FULL
FORCE OF WINDS FROM BEING FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30KT WINDS FOR A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.
NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND TRACKS EAST INTO WISCONSIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS LOW...THEY ARE SMALLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS QUICKLY MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN WARM AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW STILL THINK WINDS
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GALES BEHIND THE LOW. ENOUGH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN TO HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE 30KT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET...BUT GALES STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS MODELS COME AROUND TO
A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
