309 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BLUE SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HUDSON
BAY...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
OUT WEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP ON SUNDAY...BUT THE LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL KEEP THE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND PUSH IT INTO MANITOBA.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE WEAKER TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND
BEGINS ON MONDAY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
323 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR WEST
IS CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TO
TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST
OF I-39. RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RH VALUES TOMORROW BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 30S IN CENTRAL IL. WINDS WILL BE NOT AS GUSTY TOMORROW AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...COMBINED WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25KT DURG
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
NRN IL/NWRN IN...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF GUSTS TO 19Z.
GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT SUNSET...BUT PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. A
SIMILAR SETUP IS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WEATHER
WILL BE DRY...WITH ONLY SOME CI FOR CLOUD COVER. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CIGS/VIS WILL BE UNOBSTRUCTED.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
KREIN/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA
* WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
350 AM CDT
WITH A LARGE STRONG HIGH STILL IN PLACE S ACROSS THE HUDSON
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACHING NORTHERN
MANITOBA OVERNIGHT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENTLY OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SSW TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NW AND N OF NORTHERN LAKE MI
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL SW FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT TONIGHT.
THIS IS OCCURRING IN VERY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR AND WITH THE LAKE
SURFACE HAVING COOLED TO 12 TO 14C ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI THERE WILL BE A SHALLOW BUT VERY STABLE LAYER IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
WHILE THE UPWIND SHORES OF ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE MI
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS CARRYING OUT OVER THE WATER FROM WELL
MIXED LOW LEVELS OVER THE LAND TODAY...ANTICIPATE PREVAILING
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT N AND BELOW 25 KT S
DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFF ACROSS HUDSON BAY SAT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND SW TO S WINDS SLACKEN LATER SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
