221 PM CDT
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A SLOW MOVING DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE
CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN ITS CONFIGURATION. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONG
WAVE MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL THEN BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING INTO IT
THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA EVEN AS THIS
OCCURS.
ALL OF THE ABOVE TRANSLATES INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE IT DRIFTS TO THE
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BE LIGHT SO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY
WITH WARMEST READINGS WEST AND SOUTH. A LAKE BREEZE WOULD PROBABLY
DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE
LAKE WATERS BEING IN THE LOWER 60S IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THESE DETAILS BUT WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE IN
THE 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MINUS LAKE
BREEZE AREAS IF IT CAN DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED WITH 80 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH. ONE MORE
NIGHT OF CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
MORE RURAL AREAS...WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH LOWS EACH
NIGHT AFTER THAT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WIND UNDER 10 KT FAVORING A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THEN WINDS TAKE ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT THOUGH PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PAW
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...REACHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED. THE
GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF 15-25 KTS IS
POSSIBLE.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
