243 AM CDT
RINSE AND REPEAT SEEMS TO BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY...WEEK...WEEKEND.
MINUS THE RINSE PART...AS MOTHER NATURE HAS APPARENTLY NOT PAID THE
WATER BILL. THUS NO RAIN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE LARGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW INFLUENTIAL THE
REDUCED HEAT CAPACITY WILL BE GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND OPTIMAL
SURFACE HEATING CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONETHELESS...EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS IN THE TEMPERATURES.
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WAS INDICATING AN AREA OF CIRRUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND UPPER
MIDWEST. WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL MIXING...WIND...THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN NEARLY NON EXISTENT WHICH HAS
ALLOWED SOME EVAPORATION FROM THE MOIST SOILS TO OCCUR. THIS
EVAPORATION COUPLED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NOCTURNAL
PERIOD HAS ALLOWED MINIMAL TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD...SUBSEQUENTLY
ALLOWING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. IN SOME LOCATIONS
OBSERVATIONS ARE DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM...OR PATCHY DENSE
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO A THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS...HOWEVER LESS POTENT.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT ANY PATCHY FOG TO QUICKLY ERODE.
IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAY...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
CARBON COPIES ONLY TRENDING WARMER. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPR 70S POSSIBLY A FEW 80
DEGREES READINGS. NORTH OF I-80 AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPR 70S. THEN TEMPS RADIATE INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE 50 DEGREES READINGS OVERNIGHT WED INTO THUR
MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
MEDIUM/LONG TERM PERIODS...SUGGESTING THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. ANOMALOUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE PAC-NW/SIERRA NEVADA MTN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DISSOLVE...AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO BECOME UNCLOGGED AND
MORE FLUID. THIS APPEARS TO SET THE STAGE FOR A SEMI-ZONAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER EXPECT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MOISTURE STARVED AS IT PUSHES EAST. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE
REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS HOVERING ARND 14 DEG C THROUGH
SAT...THEN COOLING TO A 10 TO 12 DEG C RANGE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED. THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY COME DOWN MARGINALLY
AT THE SFC...HOWEVER EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL GIVEN A LOW HEAT CAPACITY.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING CALM WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME SOUTHERLY.
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA AND THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXPECT FOR KGYY WHERE SOME MVFR VIS HAS BEEN REPORTED.
ALL THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12 UTC.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
211 AM CDT
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO S TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TODAY...REACHING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY THU MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MOVING
E OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AND SAT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
