402 AM CDT
VERY PLEASANT MORNING AHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER CHANGE IS UPON US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING...CREATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LIVINGSTON...FORD...IROQUOIS...AND BENTON COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...BUT DECIDED TO
SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLUTIONS AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. SHOWERS WILL ENVELOP THE
CWA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WEAK FORCING...THEREFORE EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TS AFTER 7PM FOR LAND AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY MONDAY MORNING ALL OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
CWA...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE NEXT
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD TS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ATTM...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP
FORMING...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY DIMINISH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY LOWER THAN ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH COLD AIR OVER THE
LAKE AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...THE NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES
WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SUNNY BUT CHILLY END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S EACH DAY AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 15Z...
* SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS EVE
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10KT WITH A COUPLE GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT....BUT
DO ANTICIPATE SCT SHRA TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM MOVE INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LIFT WITH THE JET EXPECT SOME
TSRA TO DEVELOP AS WELL AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING. WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING WILL NOT BE
A CONTINUOUS RAIN BUT RATHER SCT ABOUT THE AREA MID-LATE EVENING.
A QUICK RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 15Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR
TUESDAY...STRONG SSW WINDS WITH SCT TSRA IN EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF -SHRA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
245 AM CDT
WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RELATIVELY WARM
AIR RUNNING INTO THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER SHOULD PREVENT FULL
FORCE OF WINDS FROM BEING FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30KT WINDS FOR A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.
NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND TRACKS EAST INTO WISCONSIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS LOW...THEY ARE SMALLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS QUICKLY MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH AGAIN WARM AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW STILL THINK WINDS
WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GALES BEHIND THE LOW. ENOUGH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN TO HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE 30KT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET...BUT GALES STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS MODELS COME AROUND TO
A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
