315 AM CDT
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THIS FLOW PATTERN FEATURES TWO
UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...OFF
SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST NEAR 135 WEST...WHILE THE
SECOND IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT OCCUPIES MOST OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS UNDER THIS RIDGE ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO SET UP A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMPLEMENTS OF THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT HAS REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY. ONCE THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FLOW SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES PARKED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. IN FACT...TODAY SHOULD MARK THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL DAYS OF 70+ TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
OF MY CWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS...IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...70S SHOULD RESULT AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS THE WARMTH TO REACH THE LAKE FRONT. SO
OVERALL...IT WILL BE A GREAT WEEK WEATHER WISE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 17Z.
PAW
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND PROVIDE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDLESS SKIES. WINDS MAY
TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT. THEN AFT 00Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A COUPLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND HAVE THUS HELD IT
OUT OF THE TAF.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TREND...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
PAW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
305 AM CDT
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO...THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO EASTERN
ONTARIO...THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING...AND THEN REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY TUE...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OH VALLEY BY THU. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI WITH SE TO S WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
