832 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS ALLOWING FAIRLY QUICK
TEMP DROP AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS...A COUPLE OF TIMES...PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. FORECAST MIN TEMPS FROM DAY SHIFT FAVOR THE COOLER
MAV/GFS GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER
PRESENTING NO BIG FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
334 PM CDT
NO REAL FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM...ONLY ISSUES ARE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH I
DONT THINK ANYONE WILL HAVE ISSUES WITH AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS
RIDGE IN PLACE...QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE ONLY REAL FEATURES IN AND AROUND THE
REGION ARE WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ROUNDING THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...HELPING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE CWA WILL GET INTO A BETTER WAA REGIME WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE TODAY HAS HELPED WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING IT
TO AROUND 80 AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDER FORECAST TEMPERATURES...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY REAL FORECAST ISSUE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
PERSISTENT WAA AND MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD...FEEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. SO HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES OVER GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ALSO OBSERVING THESE
HIGHER TEMPS. DESPITE WEAK FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE
BREEZE...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE WERE ABLE TO RISE RATHER CLOSE TO 80
TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO HELP THESE AREAS ALSO OBSERVE THESE
TEMPS WITH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY THE CASE AS ALL AREAS WITHIN THE
CWA FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE 80S...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL OVER CLIMO.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
333 AM CDT
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY REACHING 50 DEGREES FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH...OR AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COUPLED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND ARND
80 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW/MID
30 PERCENT RANGE. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A DIXON TO KANKAKEE LINE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...
* WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...ALBEIT MINOR. THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO BACK MORE EASTERLY AT KORD AND KMDW. CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE
BREEZE EFFECTING ORD AND MDW REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
INLAND PUSH MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
OTHER THEN THE WINDS...NO ISSUES AGAIN TODAY AS SKIES REMAIN VFR.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
WITH A LARGE STRONG HIGH FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY
SETTLING S TO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SAT AND DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
MANITOBA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI FRI AND
SAT.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL SW FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 40+ KT
DURING FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO SHOW VERY WARM LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH THE LAKE SURFACE HAVING COOLED TO 12 TO 15C THERE WILL
BE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WATER.
WHILE THE WEST SHORES OF THE LAKE WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS
CARRYING OUT OVER THE WATER FROM WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS OVER THE
LAND ANTICIPATE PREVAILING WINDS FROM LATER FRI THROUGH SAT TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT S AND BELOW 30 KT CENTRAL AND N.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NE TO HUDSON BAY SAT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING AND WINDS SLACKENING.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
