343 PM CDT
ANOTHER TWO OR THREE DAYS OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ARE IN STORE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD MIDWEEK. OCTOBER THEN
RETURNS AS WINDS GO NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID OCTOBER. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK A BIT COOLER BEFORE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RECOVER
AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY. THIS TREND GENERALLY IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION FOR NEXT
SUNDAY IS GIVEN BY THE ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW MOVING IN ON THE HEELS OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
THE LARGE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST FINALLY
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED UP AND
OVER THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE...NORTH OF OUR AREA. EVEN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE MAY CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE GULF NEVER REALLY APPEARS TO OPEN UP THIS WEEK...SO THE
FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AT LOW LEVELS. MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ARE HINTING AT PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE DELAYED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IF NOT AS LATE AS EARLY THURSDAY. THUS AM CARRYING INCREASED POPS
BUT ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD WOULD
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW A
CLOSED UPPER AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY OUT AGAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE A BIT BRISK AND CHILLY FOR KIDS HEADING
OUT TO THE SPORTS FIELDS...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z...
* NO CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WHAT WIND THERE
IS WILL GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.
ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DO
LITTLE MORE THAN SOLIDIFY THE EAST WINDS A BIT.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL SHRA WITH CHC TSRA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE E TODAY...REACHING QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING....AND LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NNE FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO LAKE WINNIPEG. DURING TUE AND WED...HIGH PRESS RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SW DOWN THE OH VALLEY
WILL MOVE TO OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE LOW PRES MOVES
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD BY THU MORNING.
THIS WELL RESULT IN PREVAILING SE TO S WINDS AT RELATIVELY MODEST
SPEEDS GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE MN LOW WILL THEN DROP SE TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THU AND THU NIGHT...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
LIFTING BACK NE TO QUEBEC FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES E FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW
NW WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE ON THE S HALF OF THE LAKE FRI.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
