309 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BLUE SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HUDSON
BAY...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
OUT WEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP ON SUNDAY...BUT THE LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL KEEP THE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND PUSH IT INTO MANITOBA.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE WEAKER TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND
BEGINS ON MONDAY...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
323 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR WEST
IS CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TO
TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST
OF I-39. RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RH VALUES TOMORROW BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 30S IN CENTRAL IL. WINDS WILL BE NOT AS GUSTY TOMORROW AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 17-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE TERMINALS REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
WINDS SATURDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
EASTERN MANITOBA TOWARDS HUDSON BAY TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LIGHTER WINDS THAN FRIDAY BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS RFD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTS EAST
ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. DIRECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. THE OUTLOOK FOR
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING TO THE 17-20 KT RANGE
SATURDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
LAKE MICHIGAN LIES IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIRMASS WARMER THAN THE LAKE WATER.
FORTUNATELY THIS IS KEEPING THE MIXING LAYER LIMITED TO THE LOWEST
FEW HUNDRED FEET WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT IN THE 700-900 FT
LEVEL PUSHING 50 KT. EXPECT THAT GUSTS AT LAKE LEVEL WILL BE IN
THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TALLEST PILOT HOUSES WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE EAST BUT EXPAND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FURTHER DROP
OFF. SPEEDS WILL COME UP AGAIN INTO TUESDAY BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO
BECOME TOO STRONG BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOMETIME DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK LIKELY ALLOWING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO RETURN
OVER THE LAKE SUPPORTING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
