350 PM CDT
SAME STORY...DIFFERENT DAY. HIGH PRESSURE...DRY...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. LARGE RIDGE IS STILL OVERHEAD...AND A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT AND THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO
BE ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON WEDNESDAY. INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT NOT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION OVER THE LAKE INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
OVER WISCONSIN COULD EASILY DRIFT OVER THE LAKE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND
TOMORROW. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 80S...BUT KEPT AREAS NEAR THE
LAKE IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL TURN EAST OFF OF THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A REFRESHING BREEZE FOR LINGERING SPECTATORS AND
RUNNERS DOWNTOWN. TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
JEE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
310 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-39...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS TO THE EAST. WITH MIXING
TODAY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S TOMORROW AND
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE....RH VALUES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EASTERLY LATE TOMORROW. NEXT CHANCE OF A
WETTING RAIN APPEARS TO BE MID WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND DIRECTION DETAILS AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING THEN BECOME EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TODAY KEEPING QUIET VFR WEATHER IN PLACE. SOUTH TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT BUT THEN QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THAT LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AT ORD AND MDW WITH THE DIRECTION POSSIBLY
BECOMING NEAR DUE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GYY WILL LIKELY TURN
NORTHEAST AS THE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10
KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS
SUNDAY EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC DIRECTION AND TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA BRIEF MVFR...
OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...SLGT CHC SHRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND FURTHER WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DIMINISHING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LOOK TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE
EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. STILL NOT CLEAR WHERE
EXACTLY THE LOW WILL PASS RELATIVE TO THE LAKE BUT THE LOW PASSAGE
LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
SETTING UP AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS BUT 20-30 KT WINDS
STILL LOOK PLAUSIBLE AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LOW END GALES
COULD DEVELOP AS WELL.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
