756 PM CDT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. TRENDS
ARE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OUT OF THE
GATE AND DID SCALE BACK ON POPS/WORDING FOR THE EASTERN INDY
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EVENING PACKAGE.
STILL ANTICIPATING NO ISSUES WITH FROST AS FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GROWTH AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
AND WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT HOIST A
FROST ADVISORY THIS EVENING...AS THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS. GALE WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LM SET TO EXPIRE AT
06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL LET THAT RIDE OUT AND NOT CANCEL IT WITH
THE EVENING UPDATE AS WINDS ARE STILL FLIRTING AOA CRITERIA AT
MANY LOCATIONS. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS EN ROUTE.
SHEA
//PREV DISCUSSION...
412 PM CDT
A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS HAS BEEN CREEPING UP EAST OF
INTERSTATE 39 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUNSHINE WARMING LOWER
LAYERS...COUPLED WITH THE COLD AIR JUST OFF OF THE BL ARE ALLOWING
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO EXCEED 7 C/KM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND LOW HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
OF THE MORE 'CONVECTIVE' AND SHALLOW SHOWERS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SMALL HAIL. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF PEA OR SMALLER SIZED HAIL FROM THE MORE ORGANIZED LOOKING
SHOWERS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL KEEP ANY
GRAUPEL MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES UNLESS THERE IS BIGGER UPTICK IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE ONCE THE SUN FALLS
BELOW THE HORIZON. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
SHEA
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFD...SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG NEWS FOR EVERYONE DEPRESSED BY THE WEATHER OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO GET A BREAK AND A MUCH
DESERVED WARM-UP...BUT NOT UNTIL SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND
FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST.
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
EAST INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST TO EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WAVE
HEIGHTS ALONG LAKESHORE WILL ALSO SLOWLY FALL...SO LAKESHORE FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM. MAIN
STORY THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY COOL AIRMASS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO
REGION. SECOND SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ARRIVAL OF THERMAL TROUGH. THIS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOWED STRATOCU FIELD TO BLOSSOM OVER LAND. AS OF THIS WRITING...
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OUT OF THIS
STRATOCU FIELD...SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT POPS TO COVER THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER WARM LAKE HAS
SPURRED LAKE EFFECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
ACTIVITY DID NOT REALLY GET GOING UNTIL SECONDARY CAA SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH INCREASED LAKE SURFACE TEMP TO 850 MB DIFFERENTIAL
TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON PORTER COUNTY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL BE
MOST FAVORABLE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF WELL OVER 500 J/KG...
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WELL OVER 10KFT...AND DECENT OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN UNSTABLE LAYER WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS...TAPERING TO CHANCE OVER LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. MAY
NEED TO MONITOR TO BUMP UP POPS OVER PORTER COUNTY THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT NEARSHORE CONVERGENCE FARTHER
EAST...WHICH SHOULD LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REMAIN AS
FAVORABLE...WOULD ENTAIL A WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF SHOWERS INTO LAKE
COUNTY INDIANA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS FAR EASTERN COOK COUNTY
AS WINDS TURN DUE NORTHERLY OR JUST EAST OF NORTH. HOWEVER...NAM AND
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT SET-UP BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM RISING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
FAR EASTERN COOK COUNTY...AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST TO
VICINITY OF MIDWAY AIRPORT DUE TO EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS WEAKENING.
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL NEED MONITORING TONIGHT FOR NEAR-TERM
UPDATES GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER EVOLUTION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LAKE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN
COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY INDIANA...WITH ANY ACTIVITY COMPLETELY
SHUTTING OFF BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
NORTH...SKIES WILL CLEAR. LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IS VERY DRY AND QUITE
COLD...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 0C...SO LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EXTENT TO WHICH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISH FOR THESE AREAS WILL DETERMINE IF AND HOW MUCH FROST CAN
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...OPTED NOT TO HOIST FROST HEADLINES AND CARRIED
PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION
IN HWO.
DESPITE MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE ON SATURDAY...850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER AREA...WITH TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...THOUGH SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OUTSIDE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...SETTING UP FOR A
POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WELL OUTSIDE
CHICAGO. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SPELL NEARLY OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. DID NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH LOW TEMPS BUT STILL WENT BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. LOW TO MID 30S ARE IN THE CARDS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE...SO FROST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...AS THOUGHT IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH.
AFTER COLD START ON SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
STEADILY WARM...SO ONCE MIXING COMMENCES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-80. SUNDAY WILL
START A STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER...WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER AREA AND SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING NEARBY. AIR-MASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY AND LONG NIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
AND THEN FINALLY THE WEATHER WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR ON MONDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...WITH EVEN SOME MID 70S
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...AS DRY AIR MASS AND FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
WARMING.
RC
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH...EXPECT TO SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS H85 TEMPS WARM
INTO THE 13-16C RANGE...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS GO FROM LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY...TO MID
AND UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. AMONGST EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN FAIR/WARM WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS SOLUTION WOULD ONLY KEEP THE NICE
WEATHER AROUND LONGER. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WITH MVF CIGS CONTINUE
THROUGH 09Z. SHOWERS PRIMARILY AFFECTING MDW...AND EXPECTING THE
SHOWERS TO STAY EAST OF ORD.
* BRISK N WINDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY AT MDW. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWER.
* CIGS IN LOW VFR RANGE WITH BRIEF DIPS INTO HIGH MVFR RANGE OVER
NIGHT. EXPECTING LOW VFR CU TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NORTH FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS
RESULTED IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FOR THE TERMINALS
EAST OF ORD. EXPECTING MDW AND GYY TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SHOULD TURN
OFF BY 9Z FOR MDW AND BY 16Z FOR GYY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
AIR WILL BECOME TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. LOW END VFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS CU DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL ALSO RETURN AFTER 15Z AS
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO WARM AND THE BL BECOMES COUPLED ONCE AGAIN.
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE DECOUPLES.
LOOKING FORWARD...LOOKING A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE PATTERN AT LEAST MID WEEK.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AND WIND FORECAST. MAY SEE GUSTIER
WINDS AND A BRIEF SHOWER AT ORD.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST AREAS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
143 PM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED ON GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...HIGH WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
STORM/GALE/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILL NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY REFORMS OFF THE EAST
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
AFTER THIS MORNINGS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...AND WAVES HIGHER
THAN 20 FT PER BUOY AND SHIP OBS...WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO 35-40 KTS
FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE WITH
WAVES NOW IN THE 12-15 FOOT RANGE PER LATEST BUOY OBS. THUS HAVE
ALLOWED THE STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE AS OF 1 PM CDT...REPLACED BY A
GALE WARNING WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH 1 AM CDT SATURDAY BASED ON
CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH EXPIRATION OF GALE WARNINGS
TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. LONG NORTHERLY FETCH AND CONTINUED
RATHER GRADUAL DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WAVES
WELL ABOVE 4 FT PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO KEEP ILLINOIS SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES A LITTLE SHORTER...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FETCH
FOR ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION AND THE WESTERN LAKES.
IN FACT WIND DIRECTION FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO VERY
WEAK GRADIENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 AM
SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 1 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
