955 PM CDT
INCREASED POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AS A WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS. WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE AREA...DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. BASED ON CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...THINKING THE AREAS NORTH OF I-88 AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
357 PM CDT
OUTSIDE OF SOME PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS...NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE
NEAR TERM BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY AS FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE REGION. SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY ALLOWED FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD MIXING TO
OCCUR TODAY HELPING WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA WERE ABLE TO OBSERVE 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS TODAY.
EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THEY SLOWLY DROP OFF AS ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THE FULL SUNSHINE
TODAY WAS ALSO AN INDICATOR OF HOW MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THERE
WERE TODAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS DRIER AIR WAS
ALSO REALIZED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS TODAY FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THIS DRIER AIR IN
PLACE DEFINITELY PLAYING A FACTOR ON OUR PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY AM NOT TOO THRILLED AT THE IDEA OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT...HAVING SINCE PULLED BACK ON POPS WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CURRENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH/S PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF MAIN VORT
MAX SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ADVECT
A WARMER AIRMASS FURTHER NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER THE 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM/FORCING/PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE
DRIER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. FALLING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S SHOWS ME JUST HOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS
ALOFT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THIS DRIER AIR CLOSER
TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO WITH FORCING REMAINING FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE GOING INTO THIS PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DRIER AIR...THINK THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT
AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THEN WITH SURFACE REFLECTION SHIFTING ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THEN AS QUICKLY AS THESE PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE...THEY WILL BE
QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SCT -SHRA AND LOWER END VFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
BKN-OVC VFR DECK AT 8KFT-10KFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH ARND NOON SUNDAY. A WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVING THROUGH NRN IL
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE...ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRACK OVER THE TERMINAL AREA BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCT -SHRA.
AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY...ANY PCPN WILL BE SCT AND
LIGHT...LIKELY NOT OBSTRUCTING VIS OR EVEN WETTING RUNWAYS...AND
CIGS SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 6KFT. BY ARND 18Z...THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUD COVER
TO SCATTER OUT...WHILE SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT...WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20KT. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AT SUNSET AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
301 PM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEAR JAMES BAY
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING AND WEAKENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...
THOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE LOW STOPS
DEEPENING. UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
TO GALE FORCE ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW. GALES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE OLD LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL MORE RAPIDLY AND
LIFTS OUT ACROSS QUEBEC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
