Saturday, April 12, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion for Mchenry Co., IL

ACUS11 KWNS 130209
SWOMCD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70...

VALID 130208Z - 130315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE REISSUED TO INCLUDE MOST
OF WW70 AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SWRN IA...NEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN A FOCUSED WARM-ADVECTION
ZONE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN APPEARS TO HAVE
SAMPLED NERN PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT AND DEPICTS A
FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER THAT WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS. IF A COLD POOL CAN EVOLVE WITH CNTRL IA CONVECTION THEN
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE. OTHERWISE...LATEST WDSSII DATA
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL CORES WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. WITH
TIME THIS ACTIVITY MAY SAG INTO NRN IL AND NEW WW WILL EXTEND INTO
THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

..DARROW.. 04/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42519557 44118765 42288777 40779557 42519557



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Hazardous Weather Outlook for Mchenry Co., IL

FLUS43 KLOT 122136
HWOLOT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
436 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014


WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
436 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014 /536 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE:

WINDS TO 60 MPH.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM EVANSTON TO
TONICA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
THIS LINE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOWER.

DISCUSSION:

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER...PRIMARILY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SINCE THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND THERE WILL BE LARGE AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL. RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
RESULTING IN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER
IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

&&

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Latest Radar Image from KLOT

Severe Weather Statement for Mchenry Co., IL

WWUS53 KLOT 121538
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140412T1600Z/
MCHENRY IL-
1038 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCHENRY COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1034 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HEBRON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARENGO...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
RICHMOND AND WOODSTOCK AROUND 1045 AM CDT.
SPRING GROVE AND MCCULLOM LAKE AROUND 1050 AM CDT.
SUNNYSIDE AND PRAIRIE GROVE AROUND 1055 AM CDT.
HOLIDAY HILLS AND OAKWOOD HILLS AROUND 1100 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CRYSTAL LAKE...CARY AND FOX
RIVER GROVE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 8820 4216 8870 4242 8871 4250 8845
4250 8843 4250 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 266DEG 39KT 4244 8843 4219 8861


HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

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Mesoscale Discussion for Mchenry Co., IL

ACUS11 KWNS 121525
SWOMCD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN MN...NE IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...SRN
LAKE MI AND ADJACENT NW IND/SWRN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121524Z - 121730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY APPROACHING OR
BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOME
OF WHICH MAY IMPACT THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY 18-19Z.

DISCUSSION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE PLAINS
APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. DESPITE SEASONABLY
WEAK TO MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST
OF THE PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT A LOCAL MAXIMA IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
/UP TO AROUND 1 INCH/ DOES EXIST TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER
NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING THE
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIVE MODIFICATION OF THE RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED
AIR MASS WHICH HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT...NOW THROUGH 18-19Z...
SEEMS TO BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE NORTH/EAST OF ROCKFORD IL...TOWARD THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE 60S. SURFACE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S...THOUGH...AND THE INGESTION OF DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN STORM
INTENSITIES.

..KERR/HART.. 04/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43939241 44169091 43468865 42928751 42638604 41598764
42108930 42509046 43489228 43939241



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Latest Radar Image from KLOT

Severe Weather Statement for Mchenry Co., IL

WWUS53 KLOT 121523
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140412T1600Z/
MCHENRY IL-
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCHENRY COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1015 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARENGO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WOODSTOCK AROUND 1035 AM CDT.
BULL VALLEY AND WONDER LAKE AROUND 1045 AM CDT.
MCHENRY AND MCCULLOM LAKE AROUND 1050 AM CDT.
LAKEMOOR AND SUNNYSIDE AROUND 1055 AM CDT.
PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS AROUND 1100 AM CDT.

A SECOND SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FIRST
STORM...AND THIS SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF MCHENRY COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 AND 11 AM CDT. HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS SECOND STORM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE UNION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 8820 4216 8870 4242 8871 4250 8845
4250 8843 4250 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 260DEG 30KT 4230 8862


HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

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